https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1iZPC
Unemployment Rate - Job Losers (U-2)-((Job Losers on Layoff as a Percent of Total Unemployed-New Entrants as a Percent of Total
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Employment Situation Units: Percent, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Notes: The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13023654 Suggeste
fred.stlouisfed.org
Recession Prediction on the Clock - San Francisco Fed
The jobless unemployment rate is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times. Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but a
www.frbsf.org
jobless unemployment의 smoothed trend는 HP 필터로 추출한 것으로 보임. 추세를 HP필터로 추출한 후 추세의 first derivative, second derivative를 그리면 위의 홈페이지 그림과 매우 유사한 값으로 나옴.
가장 최근 데이터(24.02.01.)를 보면 이미 1사분면에 데이터가 위치해있음. 비상비상인 상황.
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