Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) Inflation
A measure of the trend, or “persistent,” component of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation.
www.newyorkfed.org
Whether inflation is short-lived or persistent, concentrated in a few sectors or broad-based, is of deep relevance to policymakers. We estimate a dynamic factor model on monthly data for the major sectors of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index to assess the extent of inflation persistence and its broadness. The results give a measure of trend inflation and shed light on whether inflation dynamics are dominated by a trend common across sectors or are sector-specific.
방법론은 Stock and Watson(2016), "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation"을 따랐다고..
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